Updated with the latest data: 23/8/2020

更新最新數據：23/8/2020

As restrictions are lifted for Laois and Offaly, difficult times are set to continue for the people of Kildare, at least for another couple of weeks, as they continue to fight to contain their recent outbreak. It is a reminder of the relentlessness of this virus and, while outbreaks can appear suddenly, they take time to contain.

隨著對勞埃斯(Laois)和奧法利(Offaly)的限制解除，基爾代爾(Kildare)人民的困境將持續，至少再過幾周，因為他們將繼續努力遏制最近的疫情。 這使人想起了這種病毒的殘酷性，盡管爆發可能突然出現，但仍需時間才能遏制。

In this article I look back over the last two weeks since these additional restrictions were first imposed on August 7, in order to:

在本文中，我回顧了自8月7日首次實施這些附加限制以來的過去兩周，以便：

• Review the state of the outbreaks in Laois, Offaly and Kildare in the time period leading up to August 7.
  回顧8月7日之前的Laois，Offaly和Kildare的爆發狀態。
• Compare the impact of restrictions on the case numbers in these counties, which has led to the decision to lift restrictions in Laois and Offaly but not in Kildare.
  比較限制對這些縣的案件數量的影響，這導致決定取消對Laois和Offaly的限制，但取消對Kildare的限制。
• Assess the potential of additional outbreaks, which may lead to further restrictions in the future.
  評估其他爆發的可能性，這可能在將來導致進一步的限制。

A important caveat: this analysis uses the publicly available case data published by the Irish Government on a daily basis. At the time of writing this data is current up to and including August 20. This analysis considers case numbers only and I am sure that the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) consider many other factors including testing numbers, test-positivity rates, type of transmission (clusters vs community) etc. making their action recommendations. As such this analysis is meant only a guide to what has happened and is not presented as a reliable prediction of the future.

重要警告：此分析每天使用愛爾蘭政府公開發布的案例數據。 在撰寫本文時，該數據是截至8月20日(含)的當前數據。該分析僅考慮病例數，我敢肯定，美國國家公共衛生應急小組(NPHET)考慮了許多其他因素，包括檢測數，檢測陽性率，類型傳播(群體與社區)等方面提出行動建議。 因此，該分析僅意味著已發生的事情的指南，而不能作為對未來的可靠預測。

八月爆發 (The August Outbreaks)

The graph below shows the total weekly cases, per 100,000 of population, in every county in the Republic of Ireland, from the end of July up until the 20th of August; that is, each daily value reflects the total number of cases per 100k for the preceding 7 days.

下圖顯示了愛爾蘭共和國每個縣從7月底到8月20日每周每10萬人的總病例數； 也就是說，每個每日價值反映了前7天每10萬的案件總數。

Most counties are shown as the tangle of thin grey lines towards the base of the graph, indicating low weekly case numbers. The dashed line is the average for Ireland during this time; less than 20 new weekly cases per 100,000 of population for much of this period, but steadily rising throughout.

大多數縣顯示為朝向圖表底部的細灰線纏結，表明每周病例數較低。 虛線是這段時間愛爾蘭的平均值； 在此期間的大部分時間里，每10萬人口中只有不到20個新的每周病例，但在整個過程中穩步上升。

Laois, Offaly and Kildare (LOK) emerged as outliers around the end of July, each with large and growing weekly case counts during the first few days of August. On August new restrictions were imposed and these had an almost immediate impact on Laois and Offaly – within a week their case counts, while still high, were in a steady decline – although the numbers in Kildare have been more stubborn to control.

Laois，Offaly和Kildare( LOK )在7月底出現異常值，在8月的前幾天中，每個星期都有大量且不斷增長的病例數。 8月份實行了新的限制，這些限制幾乎對勞埃斯和奧法利產生了直接影響-在一周之內，盡管基爾代爾州的案件數量仍然較難控制，但案件數量雖然仍然很高，但仍在穩定下降。

縣比較 (County Comparisons)

Let’s go back a few weeks and consider the state of play during the week before August 7, when NPHET were hard at work analysing the outbreaks in LOK, and deliberating on what action should be recommended. Back then, total weekly case counts were approximately 48, 84 and 102 cases per 100k of population, respectively, for Laois, Offaly and Kildare. To put this in context, the average at the time for the entire country (excluding LOK) was just 4 cases per 100k per week, and no other county had more than 14 cases per 100k per week; then Wexford was next highest with 13.3 cases per 100k per week. In other words, Laois, Offaly and Kildare were genuine outliers with case totals that were at >10x the average over all other counties and >3x the next highest single county. And LOK case totals were rising!

L等幾周后再考慮8月7日之前一周的情況，當時NPHET努力分析LOK的暴發，并考慮應采取何種行動。 那時，Laois，Offaly和Kildare的每周總病例數分別約為每100k人口48、84和102例。 考慮到這一點，當時整個國家(不包括韓國)的平均值僅為每10萬每周4例，而其他縣的每10萬每周沒有超過14例。 然后是韋克斯福德(Wexford)，以每周每10萬的13.3例居第二。 換句話說，Laois，Offaly和Kildare是真正的異常值，案件總數是所有其他縣的平均值的10倍以上，是第二高的單個縣的3倍以上。 LOK案件總數正在上升！

The bar chart below shows the total number of weekly cases per 100k of population for each county during these last two weeks. The darker bars show the totals for the last (most recent) 7 days and the lighter bars show the totals for the 7 day period before that (effectively the first week of the LOK restrictions).

下面的條形圖顯示了最近兩個星期內每個縣每10萬人口的每周病例總數。 較黑的欄顯示最近(最近)7天的總計，較淺的欄顯示之前7天(有效期為LOK限制的第一周)的總計。

Offaly and Kildare standout in terms of their high case numbers since August 7; Offaly’s weekly cases have fallen dramatically in the last week (a 72% decline compared to the previous week), while Kildare’s increased by 11%. The weekly cases in Laois have been coming down since August 7 and fell a further 21% in the last week.

自8月7日以來，Offaly和Kildare的案件數量很高。 在過去的一周中，Offaly的每周病例明顯減少(與前一周相比下降了72％)，而Kildare的每周病例則增加了11％。 自8月7日以來，勞埃斯(Laois)的每周病例下降了，上周又下降了21％。

Given that the LOK restrictions were imposed when weekly case counts were 48 per 100k or higher in these counties, then we can treat this as a type of baseline level, beyond which restrictions may be appropriate; no doubt depending on other factors too, such as community transmission levels and test positivity rates. The weekly case rates in Laois and Offaly have now fallen far below this baseline – 21 cases and 15 cases per 100k for Laois and Offaly respectively over the last 7 days – so it is not so surprising that restrictions were able to be lifted, whereas Kildare’s 97 cases per 100k remain considerably above this baseline level, hence the need for the people of Kildare to endure restrictions for a little longer.

鑒于在這些縣每周病例計數為每10萬或更高的案例48個時，實施了LOK限制，因此我們可以將其視為一種基線水平，超出此限制可能是合適的； 毫無疑問，這也取決于其他因素，例如社區傳播水平和測試陽性率。 現在，Laois和Offaly的每周病案率已遠遠低于此基線–在過去7天中，Laois和Offaly的病案分別為21例和每10萬的15例–因此，取消限制是不足為奇的，而Kildare每10萬中有97例仍大大高于此基線水平，因此基爾代爾人需要忍受更長的時間。

It is worth noting how graph also brings attention to a number of other counties that are within reach of the type weekly case numbers that brought about restrictions in LOK. For example, Carlow’s numbers have been increasing recently — indeed it has added more cases per 100k than either of Laois or Offaly — but thankfully have begun to decline again over the course of the last day or so. Hopefully this is a sign that Carlow’s recent rise in cases has been brought under control.

值得注意的是，圖表還如何引起人們的關注，這些其他縣都屬于每周例數類型，這對LOK造成了限制。 例如，卡洛(Carlow)的數量最近一直在增加-實際上，每十萬個案例的數量比勞埃斯(Laois)或奧法利(Offaly)的數量更多-但幸運的是，在最后一天左右的時間內，數量又開始下降。 希望這表明卡洛最近的案件增加已經得到控制。

Tipperary also stands out because of a very significant increase in cases in the last week, presumably because of the cluster located in a Mushroom plant there. This brought Tipperary’s weekly case numbers to 45 cases per 100k for the week and very close to the level of Laois (48 cases per 100k) when its restrictions were imposed; presumably if Tipperary’s cases can be isolated and contained then the type of community transmission seen in LOK can be avoided and restrictions will not be needed.

蒂珀雷里(Tipperary)之所以脫穎而出，是因為上周的病例數量顯著增加，大概是因為該群位于蘑菇工廠。 這使得蒂珀雷里每周的每周病例數達到每100k 45例，非常接近勞埃斯實行限制時的Laois水平(每100k 48例)。 據推測，如果蒂珀雷里的病例可以被隔離和控制，那么可以避免在LOK中看到的社區傳播類型，并且不需要限制。

Dublin, Kilkenny, and Limerick have also register >100% growth in th elast week compared to the previous one, bringing their weekly cases to approximately 20 per 100k. While still far from the levels that led to additional restrictions in LOK, it may be more challenging to to arrest these rates of growth given higher population densities involved compared with LOK.

都柏林，基爾肯尼和利默里克在上周也錄得100％的增長，與前一周相比增長了，使其每周每10萬例案件增加了大約20個。 盡管仍遠未達到對LOK施加額外限制的水平，但要阻止這些增長速度可能更具挑戰性，因為涉及的人口密度高于LOK。

結論 (Conclusions)

This virus does two things really well: it spreads and it makes us sick. It doesn’t get bored, it doesn’t get lonely, it doesn’t get tired. But we do, and from time to time our resolve slips, and sometimes we make poor decisions. And that’s ok, as long as it’s not happening to all of us all of the time.

?他的病毒做了兩件事真的很好：它傳播，這讓我們生病。 它不會感到無聊，不會寂寞，不會疲勞。 但是我們確實這樣做，而且我們的解決方案會不時地滑落，有時我們會做出錯誤的決定。 沒關系，只要不是我們所有人都一直都在發生。

What really matters in the fight agains the virus is how we perform as a population, and yes that has to start with individuals, and after the appalling behaviour of some over the past few days one would be forgiven for thinking what’s the point, but we simply can’t do that. We just have to work even harder to make up for the occasional failings of the few and after all isn’t that what it really means to say that we are all in this together?

在戰斗中真正重要的是，該病毒是我們作為一個整體的表現，是的，這必須從個人開始，在過去幾天中一些人的可怕行為之后，人們會原諒我們的想法是什么，但是我們根本做不到。 我們只是必須更加努力地彌補少數幾個人的偶然失敗，畢竟這不是說我們在一起的真正含義嗎？

LOK was a bit of a wake-up call. It reminded me of how quickly this virus can sneak up on us again. But it also showed that we can regain control without going into full lockdown. If we can keep responding in this way, and keep our contacts low, and maintain social distancing, and practice good hand-hygiene, then hopefully we can avoid more LOKs in the future and control the virus through the challenges of the next few months as schools reopen.

LOK有點叫醒。 它使我想起了這種病毒能很快在我們身上再次潛行。 但這也表明我們無需完全鎖定就可以重新獲得控制權。 如果我們能夠繼續以這種方式做出React，保持低聯系，保持社會疏遠，并保持良好的手衛生，那么希望我們將來能夠避免更多的大韓民國，并通過未來幾個月的挑戰來控制病毒。學校重新開放。