News flash: being an umpire is hard. Their job is to judge whether a ball that’s capable of moving upwards of 100 MPH or breaking 25+ inches crossed through an imaginary zone before being caught. I don’t think many would argue that they have it easy, but every baseball fan would be lying if they claimed they’ve never been upset at a call, whether it’s your cleanup hitter getting rung up to end a rally or the opposing team’s leadoff hitter eking out a full-count walk on a pitch just inside. These calls have been in the game since its inception and will stay a part of the game while umpires still call balls and strikes. Finally being able to watch MLB games again got Tyler Zombro and I thinking about the trends in these calls and if umpires have an inherent bias to expand the strike zone for certain locations.

新聞快訊：成為裁判員很難。 他們的工作是判斷一個能夠向上移動100英里/小時或突破25英寸以上的球是否在被抓住之前越過了一個假想區域。 我認為很多人都不會認為這樣做很簡單，但是如果每個棒球迷都聲稱自己從未在通話中感到沮喪，那么不管他們是清理清除手準備結束一場集會還是對方球隊的比賽，他們都會撒謊開場擊球員芯吸出來只是在內部間距的全算的步行路程。 自游戲問世以來，這些調用就一直存在于游戲中，并且當裁判仍在召喚球和罷工時，它們仍將保留在游戲中。 終于能夠再次觀看MLB比賽了， Tyler Zombro和我考慮了這些電話的趨勢以及裁判員是否固有地偏向于擴大某些地區的罷工區。

方法 (Methodology)

The data set used was filtered down to only include pitches that were called strikes or balls as there’s no way of knowing what a pitch would have been called otherwise. A universal strike zone was then constructed using the PitchGrader model to help mitigate the height difference between batters. This provides a clear top (44.08" or 3.67' off the ground) and bottom (18.29" or 1.52' off the ground) to the zone while also giving a little leeway (1.47") off the edges of the plate since any part of the ball has to cross the strike zone to be a strike. The pitches were then filtered to be reasonably close to the strike zone to constrain wild misses.

所使用的數據集被過濾掉，只包括被稱為打擊或球的音高，因為無法知道否則將被稱為什么音高。 然后使用PitchGrader模型構建通用打擊區，以幫助減輕擊球手之間的高度差。 這樣可以為該區域提供一個清晰的頂部(離地面44.08英寸或3.67')和底部(離地面18.29英寸或1.52')，同時由于板子的任何部分都留有一點余地(1.47“)。球必須越過擊球區才算是擊球，然后對球距進行過濾，使其合理地接近擊球區，以限制野外射門。

結果 (Results)

左手擊球手 (Left-Handed Hitters)

Looking at a two-inch range off the plate against left-handed hitters shows that the outside pitches are called strikes at a 48% clip compared to a 21% clip inside. Increasing the range to five inches shows the same result: pitches off the plate away are called strikes much more often (26% away contrasted with 10% in). This disparity between outside and inside pitches shrinks when looking strictly at pitches from left-handed pitchers, giving credence to the idea that opposite-handed pitchers can live off the plate away much better.

從左手擊球手處兩英寸的范圍內可以看出，外側投球被稱為擊球，擊球率為48％，而內側為21％。 將射程增加到5英寸可顯示出相同的結果：離開擊球板的步伐被稱為擊球的頻率更高(相距26％，相距10％)。 當嚴格看左手投手的投球時，外部和內部投球之間的差異縮小了，這證明了相反的投手可以更好地生活在盤上的想法。

右撇子 (Right-Handed Hitters)

For right-handed batters, umpires are much more apt to expand the strike zone off the plate. Within the 2-inch window, 50% of outside pitches are called strikes while only 32% of those inside pitches are called strikes. Left-handed pitchers enjoy more success away within that zone with 54% of their pitches off the plate away being called strikes, backing up the idea that opposite-handed pitchers can live away better. In the 5-inch range, outside pitches are called strikes 28% of the time compared to 17% for inside pitches.

對于慣用右手的擊球手而言，裁判更容易將擊球區擴大到板外。 在2英寸窗口內，外部音高的50％被稱為打擊，而內部音高的僅32％被稱為打擊。 左撇子投手在該區域內獲得了更大的成功，他們的投籃命中率有54％被稱為打擊，這證明了左撇子投手可以更好地生活。 在5英寸范圍內，外部音高在28％的時間內被稱為敲擊，而內部音高則為17％。

總體 (Overall)

Umpires have a clear bias towards expanding the zone for outside pitches. While looking at pitches an inch outside/inside our zone, 58% of those outside pitches were called strikes compared to 36% of those inside. While both percentages are high for pitches that should probably be classified as balls, outside pitches were over 1.5 times more likely to be called strikes compared to inside pitches within the same range.

裁判員顯然傾向于擴大外部球場的區域。 在查看我們區域外/內一英寸的間距時，其中58％的外部間距稱為罷工，而內部的36％被稱為罷工。 盡管對于應該歸類為球的球場來說，這兩個百分比都很高，但與相同范圍內的球場相比，外側的球場被稱為打擊的可能性高1.5倍。

The difference in rate becomes even more pronounced the further off the plate you look. A range of two inches off the plate shows that outside pitches are 1.81 times more likely to be called strikes while increasing the range to 5 inches shows that outside pitches are almost twice as likely to be called strikes. The visual below showcases how much further off pitches away are called compared to those inside. It’s clear that umpires have called more strikes away and do so at a much higher rate.

速率差異越顯著，離您的盤子越遠。 距離板兩英寸的范圍表示外部音高被稱為打擊的可能性高1.81倍，而將范圍增大到5英寸則表明外部音高被稱為打擊的可能性幾乎是兩倍。 下面的視覺效果展示了與內部距離相比，遠處的距離被調用的距離。 顯然，裁判員要求更多的罷工，而且罷工率更高。

I believe the main cause of this outside bias is that umpires set up between the catcher and batter, providing them a much better picture of the inside part of the plate. I believe this is also heightened with matchups of the same handedness as pitches on the inside part of the plate will approach from a straighter angle and therefore easier to judge its location.

我相信造成這種外部偏差的主要原因是在接球手和擊球手之間建立了裁判員，從而使他們對盤子的內部有了更好的了解。 我相信，如果用相同的慣性進行比賽，這也會增加，因為板內側的螺距會從更直的角度接近，因此更容易判斷其位置。

With how much pitches move in today’s game, it’s not a surprise that more and more pitches are being called off of the plate. Pitchers can use this to their advantage and work away more often when they need to steal a strike. Getting two or three extra calls a game can be the difference between getting pulled early or putting together a quality start.

在當今比賽中，隨著音高的變化，越來越多的音調被取消就不足為奇了。 投手可以利用這一點來發揮自己的優勢，并且在需要偷罷工時可以更頻繁地工作。 在游戲中多打兩個或三個電話，可能是提早獲得比賽或開始高質量比賽的區別。

Further research is necessary to understand how and when the zone is expanded. Is it mainly in two-strike counts? Do fastballs or breaking balls get called strikes off the plate more? These questions and more will help us better understand what’s going on in the mind of an umpire… at least until the robots take over.

有必要進行進一步的研究以了解區域擴展的方式和時間。 主要是兩次打擊嗎？ 快球或斷球被稱為擊球更多嗎？ 這些問題以及更多的問題將幫助我們更好地理解裁判員的想法……至少在機器人接管之前。

Thank you for reading. You can find more insights from Tyler and I at rdbaseballacademy.com. Please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @k_camden for any further discussion or feedback.

感謝您的閱讀。 在rdbaseballacademy.com上可以找到Tyler和我的更多見解。 請隨時通過Twitter @k_camden與我聯系， 以獲取進一步的討論或反饋。