The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot. — Bill Russel

這個想法不是要阻止每一個鏡頭。 這個想法是讓你的對手相信你可能會阻擋每一個投籃。 —比爾·羅素

The block in basketball has long been a cornerstone in player highlight reels and a fundamental metric in a players’ defensive capabilities. However throughout Covid-19, without any live sports to watch, I and my good friend and roommate Jeremy have spent a little too much time watching old highlights and games. As time went on, we, like many other bored teenagers, began watching click bait YouTube videos that nobody can resist such as “Greatest NBA Blocks,” and “Most clutch shots in NBA history”. Following one of many “Greatest Blocks” videos, we noticed a pattern, that is, that so many of these blocks, particularly from the 2000’s era swat-blockers, ended up out of bounds. This made us wonder how valuable a block really is. So, we did what any curious student would do, we logged 9,602 NBA blocks off of NBA.com game logs from this season into excel, and did some analysis.

長期以來，籃球的障礙一直是球員精彩場面的基石，也是球員防守能力的基本指標。 但是，在整個Covid-19期間，我沒有觀看任何現場體育比賽，我和我的好朋友兼室友杰里米(Jeremy)花了太多時間觀看舊的精彩場面和比賽。 隨著時間的流逝，我們像許多其他無聊的青少年一樣，開始觀看YouTube上無法抗拒的點擊誘餌視頻，例如“ NBA最佳區”和“ NBA歷史上最關鍵的投籃機會”。 在觀看許多“最偉大的街區”視頻之一之后，我們注意到了一種模式，即許多街區，尤其是2000年代的特警封鎖線，最終都超出了范圍。 這使我們想知道區塊的真正價值。 因此，我們做了所有好奇的學生都會做的事情，我們將本賽季NBA.com的9,602個NBA蓋帽記錄為excel，并進行了一些分析。

We created a dynamic excel model, recording data with binary variables to best generate statistics, and recorded whether the block led to an o-board or d-board [P(O — Board)], whether the team scored given they receive an O-board [P(Point | O. Board)], as well as the tendencies among teams following an O board [P(score | 2 pointer)], and [P(miss | 3 pointer)]. With this basic set of data, along with some analysis, we came to some interesting conclusions.

我們創建了一個動態excel模型，用二進制變量記錄數據以最好地生成統計數據，并記錄該區塊是導致O板還是D板[P(O-Board)]，以及在給定團隊O的情況下是否得分板[P(Point | O. Board)]，以及跟隨O板[P(得分| 2指針)]和[P(miss | 3指針)]的團隊之間的趨勢。 有了這些基本的數據集以及一些分析，我們得出了一些有趣的結論。

結果 (The Results)

The data, upon a surface-level analysis, told us nothing new: blocks are a good thing. Based on the data we analyzed, the average block will lead to an O-board 41% of the time, and of that 41% of O-boards, 39.3% lead to points. If you were to take these probabilities and multiply them by the average shot attempted — and point scored following an O-boards, you would come to find that the average points per possession given a block is 0.27. This is nearly a quarter of the average NBA points per possession, which is much higher at 1.09. So to nobody’s surprise, the data tells us the obvious, blocks are a good thing. Nonetheless, we’re not done here as we haven’t solved our original question, and after further siphoning through data and honing in on specific variables, we came to various surprises and interesting data points.

經過表面分析，這些數據并沒有告訴我們任何新內容：塊是一件好事。 根據我們分析的數據，平均阻塞將在41％的時間里產生一個O板，而在41％的O板上，占39.3％的點數。 如果您將這些概率乘以嘗試的平均投籃次數-并在O型板上得分，您將發現給定格擋的每回合平均得分為0.27。 這幾乎是每回合平均NBA得分的四分之一，遠高于1.09。 因此，令人驚訝的是，數據告訴我們顯而易見的是，塊是一件好事。 但是，由于我們還沒有解決最初的問題，因此我們在這里還沒有做完，在進一步研究數據并細化特定變量之后，我們遇到了各種意外和有趣的數據點。

2000年代的阻礙者 (2000’s era blockers)

What was previously indisputable is now evident, blocks are valuable, but are some blocks more valuable than others? More specifically, when someone like Dwight Howard, who (it appears) often swats the ball out of bounds leading to an O-board block the ball, is that of any value? Once again, the answer is yes. To use Howard as an example, to my surprise, when Howard blocks the ball, the probabilities of the block leading to an O-board, as well as said o-board being converted into a point, were within one to three percentage points of the mean, displaying no real variation between Howard’s blocks, and all other blocks. So that answers our first question, that Dwight Howard, a typical sweat-era blocker, has no higher o-board percentages than the league average. Below is a list of some of the top rim protectors in the league, along with the statistics surrounding their blocks.

以前無可爭辯的東西現在很明顯，區塊是有價值的，但是有些區塊比其他有價值嗎？ 更具體地說，當像德懷特·霍華德(Dwight Howard)這樣的人(看上去)經常將球拍打到界外而導致O形板擋住球時，這有什么價值嗎？ 再一次，答案是肯定的。 以霍華德為例，令我驚訝的是，當霍華德擋住球時，通往O形板的擋塊的概率以及將O形板轉換成一個點的概率都在該球的1-3個百分點之內。均值，在Howard的區塊與所有其他區塊之間沒有顯示出實際的變化。 這樣就回答了我們的第一個問題：典型的出汗時代的蓋帽手德懷特·霍華德(Dwight Howard)的O板百分比沒有比聯盟平均水平更高。 以下是聯盟中一些頂級籃筐保護者的名單，以及圍繞他們的蓋帽的統計數據。

All of the data tells a relatively similar story, that is, in being a top ‘blocker’ in the NBA, your blocks are more valuable. As such, all of these players stand out as being predominantly below average in the best of ways.

所有數據都說明了一個相對相似的故事，也就是說，作為NBA的頂級“蓋帽手”，您的蓋帽更有價值。 因此，所有這些參與者都以最好的方式顯著低于平均水平。

The only true anomaly is Hassan Whiteside. Interestingly, Whiteside has a reputation of being a ‘lazy’ player, who often lacks consistent hustle. In this case, this data further enhances this narrative, highlighting what may very well be a frequent occurrence in which Whiteside blocks a shot, and, for whatever reason, does not hustle for the rebound, thereby handing the opposing team a high percentage shot. Furthermore, Whiteside’s percentage of blocks leading to O-boards, as well as O-boards followed by points were numerous percentage points above the mean and were in the top 5% of all NBA players within these categories. Ignoring Hassan however, these statistics confirm a preconceived notion that the best shot blockers are not only effective but that their blocks are more valuable.

唯一真正的異常是Hassan Whiteside。 有趣的是，懷特塞德素有“懶惰”的美譽，經常缺乏連貫的忙碌。 在這種情況下，這些數據進一步增強了這種敘述方式，突出顯示了很可能經常發生Whiteside擋球，并且無論出于何種原因，都不會為籃板而奔忙，從而使對方球隊獲得較高的命中率。 此外，懷特塞德通往O板的蓋帽比例以及O板緊隨其后的得分均比平均值高出許多百分點，并且在這些類別的所有NBA球員中排名前5％。 然而，無視哈桑，這些統計數據證實了一個先入為主的觀念，即最佳的蓋帽手不僅有效，而且他們的蓋帽更有價值。

In addition, one player who stood out among the group of shot blockers, was, ironically enough, the shortest player in the list above. Two time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard. And to add insult to injury to the other 7 footers, Kawhi’s numbers stood out not only among the ten players above, but among all players. The low point percentage given an O-board, along with criminally low points per possession remained in the bottom five percent of all players who have recorded at least five blocks during the 2019–2020 season and in doing so, highlighting two key facets of Kawhi’s game.

此外，具有諷刺意味的是，在上述阻擊手中脫穎而出的一名球員是上述名單中最矮的球員。 兩次年度最佳防守球員Kawhi Leonard。 為了侮辱其他7個頁腳，Kawhi的數據不僅在上述10個球員中脫穎而出，而且在所有球員中均脫穎而出。 在O-板的低分百分比以及每回合的犯罪率低點仍然排在所有在2019–2020賽季內至少記錄了5個蓋帽的球員的底部5％中，這突出了Kawhi的兩個關鍵方面游戲。

Firstly, it shows the impact not swatting the ball has on Kawhi’s game, as more than most players with his frequency of blocks, he quite rarely intentionally swats the ball out of bounds, leading to a greater chance for a stop on defense following the block. This can partially be due to his lack of ego on the court, while also keeping in mind that the scenarios in which Kawhi gets blocks differs from most centers strictly due to varying positions. Secondly, it shows hustle. The stats reflect Kawhi, among other players with similar numbers, hustles to get rebounds and follow up blocks with continuous defense.

首先，它顯示了不打球對Kawhi比賽的影響，因為與大多數球員一樣，他的蓋帽頻率很高，因此他很少有意將球拍打出界，從而導致在蓋帽后停下防守的機會更大。 這可能部分是由于他在球場上缺乏自我感，同時也要記住，由于位置的變化，Kawhi受到阻攔的情況與大多數中鋒完全不同。 其次，它顯示出喧囂。 這些數據反映了卡懷(Kawhi)，以及其他人數相近的球員，都在努力獲得籃板并繼續防守。

其他值得注意的統計 (Other notable statistics)

One interesting statistic we came across was the Houston Rockets — post-Clint Capela. Following the Capela trade, when the Houston Rockets block a team and they get an O-board (a greater occurrence post-Capela), the opposing team’s shooting percentage is nearly 20 percentage points below the mean, leading to a much lower point per possession when blocked by the Rockets. This statistic, in particular, is quite interesting as it shows another side of the Houston Rockets, one that stats typically don’t show, namely — hustle. This statistic shows that despite team’s recovering the ball a greater amount when being blocked by the Rockets, the Rockets hustle to such a large extent on defense, that they significantly lower the opposing team’s shooting percentage. They do so to such a large extent such that despite a lack of a true center, they more than compensate in hustle.

我們遇到的一個有趣的統計數據是休斯頓火箭隊-后克林特·卡佩拉。 在卡佩拉交易之后，休斯頓火箭隊封鎖了一支球隊并獲得O牌(在卡佩拉之后發生的機會更大)，對方球隊的投籃命中率比平均值低了近20個百分點，導致每回合得分低得多當被火箭封鎖時。 尤其是，該統計數據非常有趣，因為它顯示了休斯頓火箭隊的另一面，即通常不顯示的統計數據，即-喧囂。 該統計數據表明，盡管球隊在被火箭阻擋時能將球恢復得更多，但火箭在防守時卻非常忙碌，以致他們大大降低了對方球隊的投籃命中率。 他們這樣做的程度如此之大，以至于盡管缺乏真正的中心，他們也可以彌補喧囂。

結論性思想 (Concluding thoughts)

We can’t conclude without acknowledging just how much more being a shot-blocker affects the game than the block itself. For most players, seeing someone like Dwight Howard or Rudy Gobert in the paint is enough on its own to cause them to adjust or rethink their play. The presence of a shot-blocker, along with the other ways in which they affect the flow of the game beyond blocking shots cannot be understated. This is important as this is a stat which most statistics fail to identify. Most importantly, shot-blocking isn’t going anywhere. No matter what critics say, if a player gets the opportunity to block a shot the data is, unnecessarily so if I might add, indisputable that blocking shots is a good thing. Should you avoid swatting it if you can, yes, 100%. Nevertheless, the importance in contributing to the best of your ability not only for the block, but following is equally evident in players such as Hassan Whiteside, whose blocks are of less value than that of the average player, and when the Trailblazers lose by one, lose by two, it only makes you wonder… Nevertheless, despite Whiteside having a higher opponent scoring percentage when blocking than the mean, his blocks still yield a much lower opponent score percentage than during possessions in which the ball is not blocked.

我們不能不得出結論，那就是作為蓋帽手，對比賽的影響要比對蓋帽本身的影響大得多。 對于大多數玩家而言，在油漆區看到像德懷特·霍華德(Dwight Howard)或魯迪·戈伯特(Rudy Gobert)之類的人物足以使他們調整或重新思考比賽。 阻擊器的存在以及它們影響阻擊以外的游戲流程的其他方式，不能被低估。 這很重要，因為這是大多數統計信息無法識別的統計信息。 最重要的是，鏡頭阻擋不會消失。 不管批評家怎么說，如果球員有機會蓋帽，那么毫無疑問，如果我可以補充一點，蓋帽無疑是一件好事。 如果可以的話，應該避免亂打它，是的，是100％。 盡管如此，在盡力而為的前提下，不僅要為蓋帽做出貢獻，而且在諸如哈桑·懷特塞德(Hassan Whiteside)這樣的球員中發揮跟隨的重要性也很明顯，哈桑·懷特塞德(Hassan Whiteside)的蓋帽的價值不及普通球員，而且開拓者輸掉了，兩分之差，這只會讓您感到奇怪...盡管懷特塞德在蓋帽時的對手得分百分比高于平均水平，但他的蓋帽仍然比在沒有阻擋球的情況下對手得分百分比低得多。

In addition, we also learn from this that the concept “height don’t measure heart” applies to basketball equally as much as it does in baseball. Kawhi Leonard and the Houston Rockets are just two examples that demonstrate the extent to which players and teams hustle and fundamentally outwork their opponent to such an extent that it supplements for, and in this case exceeds the effectiveness of many other players with natural advantages.

此外，我們還從中學到，“身高不能衡量心臟”的概念與籃球一樣，同樣適用于籃球。 卡懷·倫納德(Kawhi Leonard)和休斯敦火箭隊(休斯頓火箭隊)只是兩個例子，展示了球員和球隊在某種程度上奔忙并從根本上超越對手的程度，以至于可以補充并在這種情況下超過許多其他具有自然優勢的球員的效力。

For more information regarding the raw data, along with inquiries into the statistics and validity of the report, please feel free to message Harrison Berman or Jeremy Klotz on LinkedIn.

有關原始數據的更多信息，以及對報告的統計信息和有效性的查詢，請隨時在LinkedIn上向Harrison Berman或Jeremy Klotz發送消息。